Markets Bearish, Pullback to $BTC $60,500 Likely

⏩ TL;DR

Bitcoin broke the neckline of a Head & Shoulders pattern, pulling down the rest of the Crypto market.

📬 In This Issue

• Web3 Headlines – Markets are down
• Fear & Greed Index – 70
• Market Moves – Bearish for Top 100
• Expert Analysis – Technical Roundup, Market Mavericks, & DCA Live
• Dates To Watch – June unlocks and Retail Sales in US
• Top Tweets & Crypto Memes

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🗞️ Web3 Headlines

• Bitcoin Pullback to $66K Triggers $250M in Crypto Liquidations – Coindesk
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs see $200 million in net outflows ahead of FOMC meeting – The Block
• Bitcoin Pullback Does Little Damage To Bullish Chart Bias – Verified Investing
• Ether ETFs Should Be Fully Approved by September, Says SEC Chair Gensler – Coindesk
• Curve founder repays 93% of $10M bad debt stemming from liquidation – CoinTelegraph

😱&💸 Fear & Greed Index

The Fear & Greed Index, according to Milk Road, measures the mood of the crypto market.

Subscribe to their excellent newsletter for daily crypto updates.

📈 Market Moves

This week was bearish for the Top 100 tokens.

• No coins reached a 52-week high, but 33 reached a 52-week low.
• CRV lost 38% after founder HHH was liquidated from many of his positions.
• Swarm $BZZ was the winner this week, gaining 63%.

Bitcoin has created a classic Head & Shoulders pattern on the daily timeframe.

If it confirms below the neckline, we could see a pullback to $60,500 – the same distance from the peak of the Head to the neckline from the breakdown.

This is not actionable until it confirms, when a candle closes lower than the first candle closing below the breakdown.

Given the institutional interest and price manipulation, this could be turned around by market makers, so I won’t be entering a short, or exiting my spot positions, until I see confirmation on the daily timeframe.

However, I could also see those who manipulate the markets wanting a lower entry for large amounts of institutional capital – so the price could likely be manipulated either way. What the chart tells us is this is a big bearish signal to be monitored.

There is also a Bearish Divergence on the RSI, which isn’t actionable by itself, but does add a layer of confluence.

🧐 Expert Analysis

[13:26] Technical Roundup with Crypto Cred

TL;DW Takeaways:

📉 BTC Range Strategy: Focus trades at the $60k and $70k extremities; avoid the middle ($65k) for better opportunities.

🔍 Key BTC Levels: Watch the midpoint around $65k for strong market signals; otherwise, wait for moves near $60k or $70k.

📊 ETH ETF Play: Consider buying ETH before ETF approval if you expect a positive outcome, but brace for a potential drop below $3600.

⚖️ Trading Balance: Prefer extreme price levels over mid-range for trades to capitalize on market inefficiencies.

🚫 Avoid Noise: Steer clear of low time-frame, impulsive trades during consolidations; wait for clear breakouts for safer bets.

[1:08:04] DCA Live with CTO Larsson, InvestAnswers, and Rekt Mando

TL;DW Takeaways:

📉 Monitor Mondays: Bitcoin’s best buy day remains Monday. Keep an eye on price levels around $69k for potential entry points or further stagnation.

💹 Watch Basis Trade: Be aware of hedge funds’ basis trade (buying ETFs, shorting futures). This can mislead apparent inflows and affect market dynamics.

🔍 Track Rate Changes: Stay alert to rate cuts and macroeconomic shifts, especially in the US and Europe, as they can impact Bitcoin’s price and investor sentiment.

🚀 Prepare for Breakouts: Watch for significant inflows or buyers. A price move above $72k could trigger short-covering and a rapid upward spike.

🌐 Altcoin Focus: Ethereum ETF news hasn’t spiked prices. Solana’s strong DEX volume could signal growth; consider opportunities in Solana over Ethereum for meme coin and DEX activities.

[30:48] Market Mavericks with Gareth Soloway, Scott Melker, and Mike McGlone

TL;DW Takeaways:

📉 Prepare for Deflation: Expect a deflationary trend similar to 1929; be cautious with long positions and consider hedging against downturns.

🔄 Watch for FED Interventions: Stay alert for FED actions to counter deflation; anticipate potential liquidity injections that could stabilize or boost markets.

📊 Monitor Market Signals: Pay attention to historical cycles, commodity prices, and unemployment trends as indicators of market corrections.

💱 Crypto Caution: Despite ETF inflows, Bitcoin is showing weakness; be wary of volatility and potential drops aligned with broader market corrections.

📈 Tech Stock Alert: The surge in tech stocks might be a bubble; evaluate fundamentals and be ready for a pullback if market exuberance wanes.

👀 Dates To Watch

• 14 June – $73m worth of $STRK is unlocking, roughly 5% of the total supply
• 17 June – $CHZ Chiliz Dragon8 hard fork
• 19 June – US Retail Sales m/m released, UK CPI y/y
• 25 June – Stader will burn 20% of $SD supply, valued at $30 million

𝕏 Crypto Twitter

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😁 Crypto Memes

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❝ Investment Quote

“Knowing what you don’t know is more useful than being brilliant.”

— Charlie Munger

⚠️ Disclaimer

This is not financial advice, and the author, Caelan Huntress, is not a financial advisor, he’s just a dude on the internet. Do your own research, wipe your own nose, and read this newsletter for education and entertainment purposes only.

👋 Until Next Week

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• Caelan Huntress